Wynn Resorts’ New Financial Forecasts For Its UAE Project: 5 Takeaways

Wynn Resorts has upped its budget, financial projections, and ambitions for its casino project in the UAE, according to a presentation it gave to investors and analysts Tuesday.

Wynn Al Marjan Island is scheduled to open in 2027, now with a $5.1 billion price tag, $1.2 billion more than previously planned.

The large-scale resort will be in Ras Al Khaimah (RAK), the fourth largest of the seven UAE emirates. Wynn now says it will develop almost all of Ras Al Khaimah’s third Marjan Island – Island 3.

Wynn secured the the country’s first casino license last Friday and Skift reported on the prospects for gaming in the UAE.

Skift received confirmation Tuesday from the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA) that Wynn does have its gaming license secured.

The authority said: “The General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA) can confirm that a Commercial Gaming Facility Operator license has been awarded to Island 3 AMI FZ-LLC, a joint venture that includes Wynn Resorts.”

The Wynn presentation included 99 slides – here are five key takeaways:

1: Wynn Has a Whole Island to Work With

We now know that the joint venture Island, 3 AMI FZ-LLC, which includes Wynn Resorts in the UAE, owns a quarter of Marjan Island. Island 3 AMI FZ-LLC is made up of RAK Hospitality Holding LLC, Marjan and Wynn Resorts.

Marjan Island is split into four separate islands, and Island 3 AMI owns almost all of the third island, with the ability to develop on top of it – the company has 155 acres to build on. The budget for the project is $5.1 billion.

2: The Project is Going to be For The Rich

Wynn Resorts’ rooms have always been pricey, but the Marjan Island project is eyeing a particularly deep-pocketed set of customers.

The presentation points out how 9.7 million high-net-worth individuals live in the UAE – nearly 20% of the world’s millionaires.

Wynn expects 37% of its gross gaming revenues to come from “international VVIPs” – which it defines as ultra-high net-worth international customers. 29% will then come from other international travelers.

The remaining 34% will come from the domestic market, with Wynn pointing out that nine million non-Emiratis live in the country and Wynn can “capture untapped domestic gaming demand.”

The UAE is yet to publish its federal law for gaming, but there are rules for advertising gaming: National symbols and national dress will be strictly prohibited in materials, suggesting further that casinos will be for expats.

3: Source Markets

For a while, the assumption was that Indian travelers would be important customers for the resort. “There’s a lot of folks there. There’s a lot of wealth in India, and that’s going to be an important market,” Wynn Resorts CEO Craig Billings said during the latest earnings call.

The presentation now shows us Wynn’s “core markets” in the UAE: Europe, India, GCC and UAE.

4: Wynn Expects to Have a Monopoly on Casinos

In Wynn’s presentation, it states that only one casino license will be granted in each emirate. In November 2023, Billings alluded to this, saying Wynn would control gaming in RAK.

“It will likely be us and us alone for a multiyear period,” said Billings in an earnings call. “After that, it may be a duopoly or an oligopoly of three.”

That being said, Wynn expects more casinos elsewhere in the emirate, likely Dubai and/or Abu Dhabi. It states: “[Wynn] assumes two other competitive integrated resorts operating in the UAE, with Wynn GGR market share of 33%.”

The fact that the license has been granted at a developer level rather than an individual company level means that if developers decide to build more than one casino, they probably already have the green light to do so.

5: A $5 Billion Industry

Wynn is expecting the UAE gaming market to be worth between $3 billion and $5 billion. It also projects gaming could make up 1% of GDP.

Other sources think it could be even larger. Bloomberg Intelligence this week said it could reach $6.6 billion, while analytical firm CBRE said it could go as high as $8.5 billion.

This would suggest the UAE casino market would be similar in size to the Las Vegas Strip and 50%-70% larger than Singapore’s current casino industry.

Per year, Wynn is projecting $1.6 billion in gaming revenue each year, or $1 billion on the low end. For reference, Wynn Las Vegas had around $628 million in gaming revenue last year.

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